Ruriko Nakahara
Kyoritsu women’s university, JAPAN 　
Title: Construction of Simulation Systems for Large-scale Disasters
Biography
Biography: Ruriko Nakahara
Abstract
Statement of the Problem: The risk of the occurrence of a large-scale earthquake in Japan in the near future is increasing. The estimated damage of an M 7.3 earthquake with Tokyo Bay as the epicentre at 6 p.m. in the winter (wind speed 8 m) in Ota Ward, Tokyo, alone is predicted to be 11,108 destroyed buildings, 32,218 burn injuries, 1,073 fatalities, and 10,412 injured and 1,655 critically injured patients.
Methodology Orientation: In this study, we developed a system that simulates the number of critically injured people likely to be hospitalised in the five disaster base hospitals in Ota Ward during a large earthquake and examined its usability.
The system is based on specialised software with map functions, and it has the following four features.
Based on the database published by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, the map colour codes the comprehensive degree of risk.
The number of critically injured who are likely to be hospitalised in the five disaster base hospitals are estimated and indicated on the map.
Simulations are developed for 5 a.m., 12 p.m., and 6 p.m.
Simulations are developed for 24, 48, and 72 hours after the occurrence of the disaster.
Finding: Our estimates demonstrated that the number of critically injured patients hospitalised at the disaster base hospitals during an earthquake could be as much as 20 times the usual levels.
Conclusion &Significance: Based on the interviews of hospital officials, we confirmed that this simulation system could be helpful in responding to large-scale earthquakes.